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100fm-100
Pm

Pascal

Severity6/10

Pascal's Mugging

Decision paralysis caused when an agent allocates disproportionate resources to extremely low probability but extremely high utility scenarios.

Periodic recordExistentialarXiv2018

Christian Tarsney

Mitigation Strategy

Implementation of Bounded Utility functions, appropriate discounting of extremely low probability scenarios, and robustness against probabilistic blackmail.

Atomic Number

100

Pm

Risk ID

fm-100

Severity

6/10

Severity Level

100
Existential
fm-100
Pm

Pascal

Pascal's Mugging

RiesgosIA.org
Existential • #100

Pascal's Mugging

Pm
Severity Level6/10

Definition

Decision paralysis caused when an agent allocates disproportionate resources to extremely low probability but extremely high utility scenarios.

Mitigation Strategy

Implementation of Bounded Utility functions, appropriate discounting of extremely low probability scenarios, and robustness against probabilistic blackmail.

Reference Paper

Exceeding Expectations: Stochastic Dominance as a General Decision Theory

Authors: Christian Tarsney

Source: arXiv · arXiv:1807.10895 · 2018

Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.10895v5

Notes / Observations

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RiesgosIA.org • Periodic Table of AI RisksRiesgosIA.org